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An analysis conducted by PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a report on “New Year Economics PHDCCI Economic Outlook 2024” projects that India will be the most resilient economy among the top 10 leading economies in 2024 and 2025.

The analysis is based on lead macroeconomic indicators including the GDP Growth, Export Growth, Gross National Savings, Total Investments and Debt of GDP Ratio.

India is poised to attain the status of a “developed economy” by 2047 with the dynamic initiative of “Viksit Bharat.” With a consistent GDP growth rate exceeding 7% over the past two years and a projected continuation of this trend in the current year too, the economy is expected to surpass USD 4 trillion in 2024 and thereafter moving to next orbit in 2025, said Shri Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.

India is making significant strides for its futuristic growth trajectory, the GDP in the current financial year is expected to expand at 7.4-7.5%, said Mr. Agrawal

The NSO estimates the growth in real GDP during 2023-24 at 7.3% in its advanced estimates released on 5th January 2024.

Despite the global headwinds, India’s economy remains resilient. Geopolitical conflicts are reshaping the World, disrupting global value chains, and causing inflationary pressures. However, India’s geopolitical significance is growing significantly, earning praise from international institutions, said Shri Sanjeev Agrawal.

The analysis has been conducted for four sets of time periods, Pre Pandemic Years (2018, 2019), Pandemic Years (2020, 2021), Post Pandemic Years (2022,2023) and Futuristic Outlook Years (2024,2025). Ranking of the lead economic indicators has been observed in these four periods, said the Industry body PHDCCI.

India is ranked 2nd in the Pre Pandemic Years (2018, 2019) and the Pandemic Years (2020, 2021), and 1st in the Post Pandemic Years (2022,2023)and Futuristic Outlook Years (2024,2025), among the top 10 economies.

According to experts, markets are expected to remain resilient and are expected to make new highs in 2024. The Nifty 50 index and SENSEX are likely to significantly surpass 25000 and 75000, respectively in 2024, benefiting from the continued reforms process by the government for the various growth promising sectors of the Indian economy, said the Industry body PHDCCI.

India’s economic journey reflects a nation overcoming challenges, implementing strategic reforms, and showcasing resilience across diverse sectors. The convergence of geopolitical stability, economic resilience, sectoral growth, and technological advancements paints a promising picture of India’s role in the ever-evolving global economic landscape, said Dr Ranjeet Mehta, Executive Director, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

India’s economy has displayed remarkable resilience, rebounding from unprecedented challenges, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global headwinds. High GDP growth projections from the IMF and other reputed organisations indicate strong growth, with India outpacing other leading economies, said Dr S P Sharma, Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The inflation trajectory is expected to be around 4.5% (average) in 2024. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut the Repo Rate by 100 basis points to bring the level of repo rate at 5.5% by the end 2024, said the Industry body PHDCCI.

The Industry body has identified growth promising sectors including Agriculture and food processing, Infrastructure, Textile and Apparels, Pharmaceutical, Defence Manufacturing, Electronics and Fintech.

The downside risk to India’s economy would be the deepening geopolitical developments, fragmentation in the commodity markets and inflationary pressures, said the Industry body PHDCCI.

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