Analytical note by Mr. Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director, Axis My India on ongoing Karnataka state election predictions

“Navigating the diverse landscape of Karnataka posed challenges due to its multitude of communities with varying socio-economic backgrounds. This was mirrored in the political arena, with major parties targeting specific communities like Lingayats, Vokkaligas, Dalits, and Muslims to secure their support. While BJP aimed to retain power, the Congress recognized its immense potential in the state. The three-way battle witnessed a transfer of votes among the electorate. The BJP experienced a surge in vote share in the influential Old Mysore region, indicating a shift from the dominant JDS, which traditionally garnered most of its seats there. This division of JDS’s vote share significantly aided the Congress party. Except for a close contest in Bombay Karnataka, where Congress and BJP vied for victory, the saffron party found success only in the Coastal regions. In all other areas, Congress held a commanding lead over its rivals.

This overwhelming support for Congress can be attributed to the people’s desire for change, the popularity of Siddaramaiah as the Chief Ministerial candidate, and the party’s promises of freebies and financial assistance for women and educated youth. While Modi’s appearance in the last leg of the campaign may have marginally increased the BJP’s vote share, it did not significantly impact Congress’ overall performance.

The above insights aligned with our exit poll data is well reflected in the ongoing results and are a true testament to the strength of Axis My India polling expertise. It has been a challenging journey for the team, which surveyed through a sample of 37,058 across varied communities and backgrounds but the parity between the poll and the results have only motivated them to continue their strive to understand the pulse of every India voter!”

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