An international research team led by University of Vienna has, for the first time, developed high-resolution global maps assessing invasion risks for thousands of alien plant species under current and future climate and land-use scenarios. The study, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, reveals that global hotspots of plant invasion are set to shift geographically, with temperate regions facing increasing threats while some subtropical areas may see declining risks.
The spread of alien plant species—driven largely by human activity—has become a defining feature of the modern environmental era. Many of these species pose serious risks, reducing agricultural productivity and impacting human health, such as allergenic plants like ragweed. Recognizing these growing concerns, researchers sought to understand how invasion hotspots may evolve under changing environmental conditions.
The study analyzed data from 9,701 alien plant species, combining global distribution records with environmental variables. Using advanced modelling techniques, the team mapped current invasion patterns and projected future changes through the end of the 21st century.
Findings indicate that currently, nearly one-third of the Earth’s land surface is suitable for at least 10% of the studied alien plant species, making these areas high-risk invasion hotspots. Most of these regions are concentrated in subtropical and warm temperate zones, including large parts of Europe.
However, the research highlights a significant geographical shift in these hotspots. As global temperatures rise, invasion risks are expected to move toward cooler, temperate regions such as Central Europe, while declining in increasingly hot and dry subtropical regions. Additionally, previously less-affected areas in boreal and polar regions may become more vulnerable to plant invasions.
The study also reveals that not only will invasion hotspots shift, but the composition of invading species will change as well. Under severe climate change scenarios, entirely new sets of plant species adapted to warmer conditions are expected to replace current invasive species in many regions.
These shifts are likely to intensify the impact of biological invasions, particularly in densely populated temperate areas, affecting both ecosystems and human well-being. The findings underscore the urgent need for proactive, region-specific management strategies to mitigate the ecological and economic consequences of invasive species.
This landmark research provides a critical scientific foundation for policymakers and environmental managers to better anticipate and respond to the evolving challenges of plant invasions in a rapidly changing world.
